Executive Summary

NET Power pivoted to prioritize clean firm power projects using gas turbines with post‑combustion carbon capture (PCC), signing an LOI with Entropy to exclusively deploy its PCC in U.S. power and to co‑develop projects; Q3 press release also outlined 1 GW hub ambitions in the Permian and Northern MISO .
Q3 results were dominated by a non‑cash impairment of $1,095.8M on long‑lived assets tied to slower‑than‑expected oxy‑combustion adoption and economics; basic/diluted EPS was $(5.28), and net loss attributable to NPWR was $(411.5)M .
Liquidity remains solid: $229.3M cash, $192.2M available‑for‑sale securities (total liquidity $421.5M) at quarter‑end, and an Equipment Supply Agreement for two modular ~30MW turbines ($77.7M) was executed post‑quarter to accelerate Phase I Permian build .
Project timing/guidance: Permian Phase I targeting FID 1H26 and commercial operations in 2028; Northern MISO Phase I targeting FID 2027 and commercial operations by 2029, with >90% CO2 capture and targeted availability ≥95% .
Estimates context: Q3 consensus EPS was −$0.156 vs actual −$5.28 (large miss); revenue consensus was $0; EBITDA consensus −$63.3M vs actual −$57.2M (slightly better). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Strategic expansion to PCC with Entropy (TRL9 solvent capture, >90% capture) positions NPWR to deliver clean firm power sooner; “speed is key…Expanding our offerings to include PCC unlocks a significant market opportunity” — CEO Danny Rice .
Permian Phase I commercialization steps advancing: indicative offtake turns with Occidental for 30MW power and 100% of captured CO2, turbines secured for 2028 delivery, and targeted LCOE under $80/MWh at scale due to low gas costs and CO2 monetization .
Liquidity supports the pivot and near‑term project equity needs; management outlined project financing leverage given bankable turbine assets and long‑term contracted cash flows, targeting levered IRRs of ~10–15% .

What Went Wrong

$1.096B non‑cash impairment reflects slower market acceptance and current economics for first‑of‑a‑kind oxy‑combustion (SN1) not competitive; Q3 EPS collapsed to $(5.28) vs $0.01 prior‑year quarter .
Project Permian SN1 development paused; earlier value‑engineering gains weren’t sufficient to meet near‑term market economics, prompting capital reallocation away from SN1 toward PCC projects .
Operating expenses surged (R&D $24.5M; project development $10.0M in Q3), and nine‑month cash burn from ops rose to $(93.0)M, driven by La Porte testing cadence and development workstreams .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs Prior Quarters

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0	$0	$0
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $USD)	$(0.414)*	$(0.360)*	$(5.28)
Net Loss Attributable to NPWR ($USD Millions)	n/a	n/a	$(411.5)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(37.0)*	$(85.8)*	$(57.2)*

Notes: Revenue YTD was $0, implying $0 in Q1/Q2 and $0 in Q3 . Values retrieved from S&P Global for cells marked with *.

Operating Cost and Liquidity KPIs

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	n/a	n/a	$24.5
Project Development Expense ($USD Millions)	n/a	n/a	$10.0
Impairment and Other Charges ($USD Millions)	$415.9 (goodwill + SN1 costs)	n/a	$1,095.8
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)	n/a	n/a	$229.3
Available‑for‑Sale Securities ($USD Millions)	n/a	n/a	$192.2
Total Liquidity ($USD Millions)	n/a	n/a	$421.5

Segment breakdown: NPWR reports a single operating/reportable segment .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Permian Phase I FID	1H 2026	Evaluating integrated product; timing not fixed (Q2)	FID targeted 1H 2026	Maintained but specified timeline
Permian Phase I COD	2028	Interconnect ready mid‑2028; NET Power core earliest 2029–2030 (Q2)	Commercial operations 2028 with PCC + turbines	Pulled forward for PCC solution
Northern MISO Phase I FID	2027	Early deployment planned; interconnect in DPP‑2023 queue (Q2)	FID 2027	Clarified timing
Northern MISO COD	2029–2030	Early deployment; timelines pending (Q2)	Commercial ops as soon as 2029	Clarified/accelerated
LCOE (Permian)	Phase I/Scale	< $100/MWh with integrated product (Q2)	~<$80/MWh at scale; < $70/MWh at 300MW+	Lowered target (improved)
LCOE (Northern MISO)	Phase I	n/a	~$100/MWh	New disclosure
CO2 Capture	Projects	>90% targeted	>90% targeted	Maintained
Availability	Projects	n/a	≥95% targeted	New disclosure
Technology Focus	Company	Oxy‑combustion SN1 priority (with integration) (Q2)	Pivot to PCC priority near‑term; oxy‑combustion maintained long‑term	Strategic shift
Cash/Liquidity	Q2/Q3	~$475M cash/investments (Q2)	$421.5M liquidity at 9/30	Lower (usage/impairment)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Strategic pivot to PCC	Q2: Integrated product blending gas turbines with NET Power cycle; LCOE < $100/MWh; sequence turbines first, then NET Power	Formal LOI with Entropy; exclusive U.S. PCC; near‑term focus on gas+PCC projects	Pivot formalized and accelerated
AI/data center load growth	Q2: Unprecedented demand; urgency for 24/7 capacity; behind‑the‑meter co‑location via turbine redundancy	“Arms race for AI”; clean gas with CCS as fastest scalable solution	Intensifying demand narrative
Project timing	Q2: ERCOT interconnect ~mid‑2028; NET Power earliest 2029–2030	Permian Phase I COD in 2028 via PCC+turbines; MISO COD 2029	Timeline clarity and pull‑forward via PCC
LCOE economics	Q2: Under $100/MWh at Permian with integration; OBBBA improved 45Q, bonus depreciation	Permian LCOE target < $80/MWh; MISO ~ $100/MWh; stack 45Q + CO2 sales	Improved economics and regional granularity
Financing strategy	Q2: Sequencing and flexible GT sourcing; potential Texas Energy Fund eligibility	Project finance feasible given bankable assets; levered IRR ~~10–15%; modest equity (~~$75–$90M) for Phase I	More concrete plan and amounts
La Porte testing (Baker Hughes)	Q2: Phases 1–4 through 2027; cadence increased; automation upgrades	Highest recorded pressures/temperatures; Phase I completion expected 2025	Continued progress; reassess phases
Regulatory/tax	Q2: OBBBA 45Q parity and bonus depreciation materially improve economics	Maintains 45Q parity narrative; CCS adoption signals (e.g., market offtake precedents)	Supportive policy remains central

Management Commentary

“The market is beginning to embrace reality: the only responsible way to meet unprecedented electricity demand growth is with natural gas power, and the only safe and proven way to do so while reducing emissions is with carbon capture.” — Danny Rice, CEO .
“Conventional turbines with capture…are proven technologies, ready to be deployed today in the right areas…We think this can be the most competitive near‑term solution that the market needs now.” — Danny Rice .
“We are targeting a below $80 LCOE for the first phase of [Permian] and below $70 per megawatt hour as we scale to 300 megawatts and beyond.” — Danny Rice .
“We have reached indicative turns with Oxy to purchase 30 megawatts and 100% of the captured CO2 under long‑term agreements.” — Marc Horstman, COO .

Q&A Highlights

Financing: Half of the facility CapEx is bankable (turbines/steam side), enabling substantial project financing; levered IRR targeted ~10–15% with 10–15‑year contracted cash flows; NPWR equity for Phase I estimated ~$75–$90M on $375–$425M TIC .
Offtake/hyperscalers: Pivot enables accelerated timelines aligned with AI/data center urgency; offtake discussions more “real and interesting” now that COD could be 2028 vs 2031+ for NET Power core alone .
LCOE drivers (Permian vs MISO): Permian benefits from low gas costs and CO2 utilization (selling CO2 vs paying for sequestration), enabling <$80/MWh versus ~ $100/MWh in MISO .
Capital model shift: Licensing‑light to capital deployment model is “right‑sized” via modular Phase I to avoid dilutive equity while establishing a repeatable platform .
Turbine sourcing and flexibility: Design is turbine‑agnostic (recips, small/medium aero‑derivatives), with modular sets to achieve ≥3–5 “nines” reliability for co‑location; post‑quarter Equipment Supply Agreement for two ~30MW sets executed ($77.7M) .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q1 2025 Estimate	Q1 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Estimate	Q2 2025 Actual	Q3 2025 Estimate	Q3 2025 Actual
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	−0.114	−0.414	−0.118	−0.360	−0.156	−5.280
Revenue Consensus Mean ($MM)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($MM)	−24.5	−37.0	−30.2	−85.8	−63.3	−57.2

Observations:

Q3 EPS was a significant miss versus consensus due to the $1.096B impairment flowing through EPS; revenue remained at $0 in all quarters consistent with development stage. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

The pivot to gas turbines + PCC creates a credible near‑term commercialization path, with Permian Phase I COD targeted in 2028 and Northern MISO in 2029; watch for definitive Entropy JV and offtake finalizations as catalysts .
Permian economics are compelling: <$80/MWh target LCOE (potentially <$70/MWh at scale) driven by cheap gas and CO2 monetization; this improves project financeability and potential returns .
Balance sheet liquidity ($421.5M) and modular project design right‑sizes NPWR’s equity needs (~$75–$90M for Phase I), mitigating dilution risk while enabling leverage on bankable assets .
The large Q3 impairment resets book value and signals oxy‑combustion will be paced methodically; expect a dual‑track strategy: PCC projects fund and de‑risk the long‑term NET Power cycle .
Near‑term stock narrative hinges on execution: finalizing the Entropy JV, locking in turbine supply (already contracted post‑quarter), closing offtakes (Oxy indicative terms, hyperscaler dialogues), and securing project financing .
Policy tailwinds (45Q parity, bonus depreciation) and market demand from AI/data centers should continue to favor clean gas with CCS; regional advantages (Permian vs MISO) are a key differentiator .
Risk skew: permitting (Class VI wells), supply chain lead times, litigation over prior disclosures, and macro interest rates could affect timelines and financing costs .

Sources:

Q3 2025 Press Release/8‑K: strategy pivot; Entropy LOI; project timing; cash position .
Q3 2025 10‑Q: impairment; EPS; liquidity; subsequent turbine purchase; operating expenses .
Q3 2025 Earnings Call: economics; financing; offtake; LCOE; project timelines; quotes .
Q2 2025 Press Release/Earnings Call: integrated product, OBBBA tailwinds; interconnect/sequence; La Porte testing progress .

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

NET Power Inc. (NPWR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary